Alternative Energy in the Free Market
Seems I can’t listen to a political debate these days without the term “alternative energy” entering the conversation. Even T. Boone Pickens, a well-known American oil man, has sponsored ads demanding that our government implement new standards that decrease dependence on oil and increase the use of alternative energy. Mr. Pickens and others have a point; maybe forms of energy other than oil may be cheaper and cleaner. In fact, with the necessary research such forms of energy would likely be discovered and widely used. But I ask this: Why do we need the government to regulate which forms of energy we use?
Energy should be thought of as a commodity, and if that commodity can be brought about by cheaper, better means than are already in place then those new means will inevitably be utilized in a free market. For example, if the use of ethanol was cheaper, easier, and better than the use of oil then wouldn’t it make sense for you to use more ethanol than gas? You might say that you can’t buy a car that uses alternative energy sources. Don’t automotive companies have an incentive to produce cars that use more efficient forms of energy? Wouldn’t that please their customers and increase sales? Don’t electric companies have an incentive to use the cheapest, easiest, best means of producing energy to provide to their customers? Why should the government have to demand that these electric companies move away from oil and to nuclear energy? If nuclear energy was cheaper and cleaner for the consumers then certainly the electric companies would have an incentive to provide such energy (unfortunately many energy companies are state run or at least the state will limit competition in the sector).
At no point in our history did the United States Government demand that every person creating energy had to use oil to do so. No, oil became so popular because it was cheaper, easier, and cleaner than any other form of energy at the time. The same would be true of any alternative energy sources that come to market that are cheaper, easier, and cleaner than oil.
There is no doubt that any transition away from oil as our main source of energy may be considered to be a slow one given all of the machinery and infrastructure already setup to support oil, but if that alternative energy source is so much better than oil that it should be used in place of oil, then the incentive will inherently be in place for people and businesses to move away from oil and to the new energy source. One of the most beautiful features of the free market is that it naturally replaces old, inefficient methods and products with new more efficient substitutes. There is no reason to believe that anything would be different if energy was left to the free market.
So next time you hear a politician tell you that the government has to do something about the “energy crisis”, you will know that this is just another way that they are trying to take power away from you and play big brother. Hold on to your power and let the market decide which form of energy is best. Governments create big mistakes and minor accomplishments, the market does the opposite.
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$140 oil had more impact in 2 months in altering consumer and industry trends and policies than congress has in the past 30 years. If that’s not an argument for the efficiency of the free-market, then I have no idea what is. Also, T. Boone Pickens is also doing these commercials because he had some tax loopholes that are also set to expire soon so he hasn’t exactly been straight-forward in his reasoning for alternative energies such as wind power.
I think the argument against foreign oil is an interesting one. I certainly don’t think anything is going to be done about it because no one is going to be willing to invest in the project for new pipelines and oil facilities. The problem is the tremendous amount of capital expenditures that will be incurred and the fact that the entire value of these projects are locked up in their terminal value in a DCF sense. This wouldn’t be a problem except for the uncertainty that we can expect to see in 10 years in terms of not only crude oil prices, but availability and any sort of government regulation. Simply put, the appropriate risk for these projects is off the charts because of the fact that all the cash flows are so far into the future and there are so many extenuating variables that could have impact on it.
That being said, I think that the biggest danger is government regulation of the oil markets and reducing speculation. Presumably, if the markets are efficient, speculation should be accurately priced into the market and any withdrawal of the speculative factor would underprice the fair price of crude oil. This means that it would also mis-price the incentives for investment in alternative energy. After all, if crude oil was $70/barrel there is a lot less incentive for companies to invest in alternative energies than at $120 or $140 oil.
To sum it up, the whole foreign oil and the argument against it is much more appropriately priced and dealt with by the markets than any form of congressional or government oversight/intervention/regulation. For instance, political risk has certainly become a larger part of the price of oil in the past 2 years and therefore, political risk has played its part in creative incentives for the investment in alternative energy. To tack on an additional level of “protection” from foreign oil from the government perspective would be in essence double counting the political risk that is inherently in today’s oil markets.